What Will Win … Best Picture?

Tomorrow’s the big show, and it’s time to take a look at the category for Best Picture.

And the nominees are…

The Descendants

Alexander Payne’s dramedy about a father reconnecting with his two daughters in Hawaii after his wife is injured made a big impact on critics and audiences, and resulted in a lot of Oscar buzz for star George Clooney.  I have yet to see the film, but I hope to catch it in the coming weeks.  Although the film won the Golden Globe for Best Drama, I don’t believe it has a shot to win the Oscar.  While, after the Golden Globes, I believed the Oscar race would boil down to The Descendants vs. The Artist (much like last year’s The Social Network vs. The King’s Speech ), now I’m not so sure The Descendants is in the top two.  It seems to have lost steam since the Golden Globes, but I definitely think it could be considered this year’s dark horse.

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Arguably the most controversial nomination of the year, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close was panned by critics who called it overly sentimental.  The Academy seemed to love it, however.  Don’t look for a win.

The Help

This year’s fan favorite featured an outstanding ensemble female cast which boasts three acting nominations.  While the film’s actresses certainly have chances to win their categories, I don’t think The Help has a chance at winning the top prize.

Hugo

Martin Scorsese’s family-friendly drama, which pays tribute to film history and the power of imagination, has replaced The Descendants in my mind as the second most likely film to win the top prize.  That doesn’t mean I’d be happy to see it win.  I saw it last night, in 2D, and I was rather disappointed.  While the look of the film is rich and intricately beautiful, and the references to film history were appreciated, I was not particularly impressed by the story, and the lead kids, Asa Butterfield and Chloe Grace Moretz, were rather flat and irritating.  I’ve read since seeing the film that the 3D version is one of the best examples — if not the best — of 3D technique, and that the 3D effects actually (gasp) enhance the story.  This might be true, and maybe that is the reason I didn’t enjoy the film, but I still doubt I would consider it the best film of the year if I had seen it in 3D.

Midnight in Paris

Woody Allen’s latest comedy managed to get a lot of buzz and a few Oscar nods.  Will it win?  Most certainly not.  Will Allen care?  Most certainly not.

Moneyball

The baseball drama, starring Brad Pitt and co-written by Aaron Sorkin, got a few nominations, but is not likely to win the top prize.

The Tree of Life

This year’s Cannes favorite, and a film which divided both critics and viewers, got attention from the Academy.  If you ask me, I think this nomination is a lot like that for Extremely Loud.  It’s a way to acknowledge a film for its subject matter or technique, but in this case I don’t think it has the potential to win Best Picture.

War Horse

Spielberg’s latest epic received a pretty predictable nomination.  Will it win?  Not likely.

And the Oscar goes to…

The Artist

Arguably this past year’s most talked-about film is the frontrunner for Best Picture.  Some people have been complaining that the film is likely to win the Oscar based solely on what a lot of people call a gimmick.  I have to disagree.  Those who have actually seen the film, instead of speculating, know that Michel Hazanavicius did not simply attempt to recreate the style of a bygone era and call it a day.  Yes, there is a very obvious mimicking of classic Hollywood, but the film has so much more than that.  It comments self-reflexively on its outdated format.  It tells a story which is captivating in its simplicity.  It features visual (and aural) techniques which would likely not be found in a 1920s film, and which become relevant because of their 2011 context.  It contains a standout performance from Jean Dujardin.  The Artist will not win based on a gimmick.  It will win because it is a lovingly crafted, innovative, consistently clever and refreshing film.  It goes to show that innovation in this age does not have to be based on the latest computer graphic or 3D attraction.  It can be based on a nod to the past in the context of our future.

Watch the 84th Academy Awards live tomorrow night on ABC.

Who Will Win … Best Director?

There are some big names in this year’s directing category.  Let’s take a closer look at their chances and predict a winner.

And the nominees are…

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

Veteran wit Woody Allen had a big success this year with his newest comedy, which is also up for Best Original Screenplay and Best Picture.  However, Allen is known for his aversion to award ceremonies, and his last win was for the screenplay for Hannah and Her Sisters in 1987.  I’m not sure the Academy will give him the gold this time around, especially since his film is most likely not going to win Best Picture.

Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Malick’s film created division among critics and audiences.  Some lauded its artistic visuals and poetic storytelling technique, while others brushed it off for being too boring or too confusing.  I fell into the second category.  While the Academy obviously respected the film, giving it not only a directing nomination, but a Best Picture nod, in addition to Cinematography, I don’t think Malick will get the gold.

Alexander Payne, The Descendants

Payne, of Sideways fame, made one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year.  He’s the dark horse of the category, because if The Descendants ends up beating The Artist for Best Picture, the general trend that the director of the Best Picture wins his or her category could come into play.  The last time something different happened was in 2005, when Ang Lee won for Brokeback Mountain, but Crash ended up winning Best Picture.

Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Scorsese is in second place, if you ask me.  He’s a veteran director who won his first Oscar for 2006’s The Departed.  This past year he created a tribute to film history in a film for the whole family, something that critics applauded him for, and which the Academy might recognize.

And the Oscar goes to…

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

I’m confident that Hazanavicius, a French director known for his spy comedies starring Jean Dujardin, will come out on top this year.  He took a risk and made a film in an outdated format, and it worked for both critics and audiences.  I think the Academy will reward such creativity.

Who Will Win … Best Actor?

Best Actor is a highly contested category.  I’ve made my predictions.

And the nominees are…

Demian Bichir, A Better Life

This year’s surprise nominee follows in the footsteps of last year’s Javier Bardem (Biutiful), being nominated for a performance in a foreign film.  While he’s not likely to win, his presence is a testament to the Academy’s aim to be different from other ceremonies.

George Clooney, The Descendants

Clooney has a good shot, as the winner for Best Actor in a Drama at the Golden Globes.  He gave a critically applauded performance in The Descendants.  Sunday could be his night, but after Dujardin’s win at the SAG Awards, I think he’ll likely lose.  However, he’s definitely second most likely.

Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Arguably the most pleasantly surprising nomination of the year, Oldman received his first career Oscar nod.  I’d say he’s the dark horse of this category.  With a number of great performances under his belt, the Academy might seek to reward him.

Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Pitt, who has two films up for Best Picture (the other being The Tree of Life), is nominated for his performance in the baseball story.  He’s up against his pal George Clooney, who I’d say has a better chance than him.

And the Oscar goes to…

Jean Dujardin, The Artist

I’m hoping no one can beat the charismatic Jean Dujardin in this year’s most refreshing film.  The French actor has taken Hollywood by storm in the past few months, winning a Golden Globe and a SAG Award.  I think the Academy recognizes what a star Dujardin is, and they’ll reward him accordingly.  I’m certainly rooting for him this Sunday.

Who Will Win … Best Actress?

Time to examine the Best Actress race.

And the nominees are…

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Close reprises a role she played on stage, as a woman posing as a male butler.  A significantly altered appearance has always been Oscar bate (see Nicole Kidman, Charlize Theron, et al.), but I don’t think this is Close’s year.

Viola Davis, The Help

Davis gave a heartfelt, passionate performance as a struggling black maid in the 1960s.  She won the SAG Award, and she’s likely the second most likely to win, but I’m not sure her performance was big enough to get her the gold.

Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Mara is the surprise nominee this year, for her performance in David Fincher’s literary adaptation.  She’s definitely got the weird factor going for her, but it won’t be enough to garner a win.

Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Williams gave a tour de force performance as icon Marilyn Monroe.  Not only did she capture the actress’s voice, mannerisms, and overall appearance, but she gave Monroe a sympathetic character beyond her bombshell persona.  Williams won the award for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy at the Globes, but I’m not sure it’s enough for her to come out on top.

And the Oscar goes to…

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

It’s hard to call whether anyone will beat Meryl Streep this year.  Fourteen actresses have done it before.  Test your knowledge of these women in this Sporcle quiz.  Meryl won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama, while Michelle Williams took it home for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy.  However, Viola Davis took home the SAG Award.  It’s definitely down to those three ladies.  Something tells me Streep will win the gold, although I was very impressed with Williams and will be rooting for her come Oscar night.  I just hope that, if Streep does win, she doesn’t act all flustered like that never happens to her.  Come on, Meryl, no need to be modest.

Who Will Win … Best Supporting Actor?

It’s time to examine another category for this year’s Academy Awards, airing this Sunday on ABC.  Today let’s take a look at Best Supporting Actor.

And the nominees are…

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn

A Shakespearean playing a Shakespearean.  Failing to nominate Kenneth Branagh in such a role would be cruel.  Here Branagh plays Sir Laurence Olivier to a tee.  Will he win?  Likely no, but I’d say he’s got the second best odds in a category full of surprises.

Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Hill, known for comedies like Superbad and Get Him to the Greek (and this past year’s The Sitter), has managed to garner an Oscar nod for his performance in the baseball drama Moneyball.  Don’t look for a win, though.  I’d say he’s least likely of the five to pull out a victory.  But you know what they say: It’s an honor just to be nominated, and blah blah blah.

Nick Nolte, Warrior

Talk about a surprise.  In a film that fell leagues below the Oscar radar, Nolte gave an Oscar-worthy performance.  He likely won’t win, but I’d say he’s definitely the dark horse of this category.

Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

The critics panned Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, creating countless plays on the title’s adverb-adjective construction.  I’m sure a lot of you have read enough of them, so I’ll refrain from creating my own, partly because I haven’t even seen the film.  It looks like Von Sydow got the nod for a sentimental performance, and I doubt he has much of a chance at the gold.

And the Oscar goes to…

Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Plummer, and Mike Mills’s film in general, garnered a lot of positive attention last year.  Plummer’s is a small and subtle role, but it leaves an effect.  With wins at both the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards, I don’t think there’s any beating the veteran actor, who’ll likely receive his first Oscar this Sunday.  It’s about time, wouldn’t you agree?