What Will Win … Best Picture?

Tomorrow’s the big show, and it’s time to take a look at the category for Best Picture.

And the nominees are…

The Descendants

Alexander Payne’s dramedy about a father reconnecting with his two daughters in Hawaii after his wife is injured made a big impact on critics and audiences, and resulted in a lot of Oscar buzz for star George Clooney.  I have yet to see the film, but I hope to catch it in the coming weeks.  Although the film won the Golden Globe for Best Drama, I don’t believe it has a shot to win the Oscar.  While, after the Golden Globes, I believed the Oscar race would boil down to The Descendants vs. The Artist (much like last year’s The Social Network vs. The King’s Speech ), now I’m not so sure The Descendants is in the top two.  It seems to have lost steam since the Golden Globes, but I definitely think it could be considered this year’s dark horse.

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Arguably the most controversial nomination of the year, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close was panned by critics who called it overly sentimental.  The Academy seemed to love it, however.  Don’t look for a win.

The Help

This year’s fan favorite featured an outstanding ensemble female cast which boasts three acting nominations.  While the film’s actresses certainly have chances to win their categories, I don’t think The Help has a chance at winning the top prize.

Hugo

Martin Scorsese’s family-friendly drama, which pays tribute to film history and the power of imagination, has replaced The Descendants in my mind as the second most likely film to win the top prize.  That doesn’t mean I’d be happy to see it win.  I saw it last night, in 2D, and I was rather disappointed.  While the look of the film is rich and intricately beautiful, and the references to film history were appreciated, I was not particularly impressed by the story, and the lead kids, Asa Butterfield and Chloe Grace Moretz, were rather flat and irritating.  I’ve read since seeing the film that the 3D version is one of the best examples — if not the best — of 3D technique, and that the 3D effects actually (gasp) enhance the story.  This might be true, and maybe that is the reason I didn’t enjoy the film, but I still doubt I would consider it the best film of the year if I had seen it in 3D.

Midnight in Paris

Woody Allen’s latest comedy managed to get a lot of buzz and a few Oscar nods.  Will it win?  Most certainly not.  Will Allen care?  Most certainly not.

Moneyball

The baseball drama, starring Brad Pitt and co-written by Aaron Sorkin, got a few nominations, but is not likely to win the top prize.

The Tree of Life

This year’s Cannes favorite, and a film which divided both critics and viewers, got attention from the Academy.  If you ask me, I think this nomination is a lot like that for Extremely Loud.  It’s a way to acknowledge a film for its subject matter or technique, but in this case I don’t think it has the potential to win Best Picture.

War Horse

Spielberg’s latest epic received a pretty predictable nomination.  Will it win?  Not likely.

And the Oscar goes to…

The Artist

Arguably this past year’s most talked-about film is the frontrunner for Best Picture.  Some people have been complaining that the film is likely to win the Oscar based solely on what a lot of people call a gimmick.  I have to disagree.  Those who have actually seen the film, instead of speculating, know that Michel Hazanavicius did not simply attempt to recreate the style of a bygone era and call it a day.  Yes, there is a very obvious mimicking of classic Hollywood, but the film has so much more than that.  It comments self-reflexively on its outdated format.  It tells a story which is captivating in its simplicity.  It features visual (and aural) techniques which would likely not be found in a 1920s film, and which become relevant because of their 2011 context.  It contains a standout performance from Jean Dujardin.  The Artist will not win based on a gimmick.  It will win because it is a lovingly crafted, innovative, consistently clever and refreshing film.  It goes to show that innovation in this age does not have to be based on the latest computer graphic or 3D attraction.  It can be based on a nod to the past in the context of our future.

Watch the 84th Academy Awards live tomorrow night on ABC.

Oscar Nominations Full of Surprises and Snubs

They’re finally out there!  The Oscar nominations were announced at 5:30 Pacific time this morning, and they were full of surprises.  I watched a live stream of the announcement, which was made by Academy president Tom Sherak and last year’s Best Supporting Actress winner Mo’Nique, and I was so thrown off guard by a few of the nominees that I lost focus during the subsequent categories.  Let’s look at a few of the surprises and snubs.  For a full list of the nominees, check out the Academy’s website.

First of all, Best Actor.  Javier Bardem for Biutiful?  While I haven’t seen the film and certainly believe that Bardem gives a great performance, this really came out of left field.  The only other major award for which Bardem has been nominated this year is a BAFTA.  No Golden Globe nomination, no SAG nomination.  Many will likely complain that the spot should be filled by Blue Valentine‘s Ryan Gosling, whose costar Michelle Williams received a nod for Best Actress.  Many would also argue that veteran actor Robert Duvall deserved a nomination for Get Low.  While Bardem may have created a big upset in the nominations, there’s no chance he’ll beat the splendid Colin Firth for The King’s Speech.  Oh, and don’t forget that Best Actor nominee James Franco (127 Hours) will also be hosting the show with Anne Hathaway.  Should make things interesting…

Now, onto the Supporting Actor/Actress nominations.  If you ask me, Andrew Garfield was snubbed for his heartfelt and sympathetic performance in The Social Network.  Instead, the Academy nominated Christian Bale (lock for the win), Geoffrey Rush, Jeremy Renner, John Hawkes, and Mark Ruffalo.  As much as I admire Mark Ruffalo’s talent, his performance in The Kids Are All Right was not Oscar-worthy to me.  He was upstaged by both Annette Bening and Julianne Moore.  If Ruffalo’s Oscar-worthy, where’s Moore’s nod in the Best Supporting Actress category?  Speaking of this category, where’s Mila Kunis for Black Swan?  Fourteen-year-old Hailee Steinfeld garnered a nomination for her first feature film role in True Grit.  Some have argued that her role should have been considered for Best Actress instead.  And Jacki Weaver has a nomination for Animal Kingdom, a small Australian film.

How about Christopher Nolan’s snub for directing Inception?  While the film might not be the front runner for Best Picture, surely Nolan’s stunning direction deserved a nod.  Will he be the new Martin Scorsese, waiting decades for an Oscar?

Best Picture is pretty predictable.  Winter’s Bone and 127 Hours could be considered the only two (minor) surprises.  I don’t think anybody can beat out The Social Network.  The King’s Speech, the most nominated film, could surprise everyone with a win, but it’s not likely, in my opinion.

Other surprises include Waiting for Superman‘s snub in the Documentary category, the entire Make-Up category, and How to Train Your Dragon in the Best Original Score category.

I was definitely wrong in a number of my predictions, but I was right on the money about Best Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Animated Feature.  You gotta give me some credit!

Don’t forget to watch the 83rd annual Academy Awards February 27 on ABC!