83rd Academy Award Predictions: Part 2

Here we are again.  Time to examine a few more categories for this year’s Academy Awards.

The supporting categories are really hard to pin down this year.  For some reason I find myself having trouble picking five appropriate actors for each category.  But here’s my best attempt.

 

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
3. Jeremy Renner, The Town
4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
5. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps

[This is a tough category, because the first four are pretty much definites, but the last nomination is up for grabs.  I looked at the nominations for the Critics Choice Movie Awards, the Golden Globes, and the Screen Actors Guild Awards, all of which include the first four actors on my list.  The fifth choice varies, however.  The Golden Globes chose Michael Douglas, the Critics Choice Awards chose Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), and the SAG Awards chose John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone).  I’m going with Michael Douglas for a few reasons.  First, the Golden Globes are usually very similar to the Oscars, with the occasional exception.  Second, the Academy almost always gives away one or two unexpected nominations from more mainstream films.  Wall Street hasn’t gotten a lot of Oscar buzz, but Douglas’s role might be this year’s unexpected nominee.  While Mark Ruffalo is always great, I didn’t feel personally that it was a particularly Oscar-worthy performance, and I don’t think there’s been enough buzz surrounding John Hawkes to garner a nod.  But who knows.  Maybe I’ll be wrong.  I probably will.  The first four names, however, are pretty much set in stone.  Who’ll win?  I predict Christian Bale to take home the top prize.  I mean, how many times does this guy have to drastically alter his physique before the Academy rewards him for it?  Personally, though, I thought Geoffrey Rush was delightful and pitch-perfect in The King’s Speech, so I’d like to see him walk away with a win.]

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
3. Amy Adams, The Fighter
4. Mila Kunis, Black Swan
5. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

[This is another instance in which the first four nominees are pretty much set in stone, but the fifth is kind of up for grabs.  I can definitely see the Academy going with breakout star Hailee Steinfeld.  The Oscars love to recognize young, fresh talent (Abigail Breslin, Gabourey Sidibe), so I think she has a really good chance.  Who’ll win?  I think Melissa Leo is the front runner, but I personally loved Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech.]

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
2. Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
3. Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
4. Michael Arndt, Toy Story 3
5. Debra Granik, and Anne Rosellini, Winter’s Bone

[Let’s face it.  Aaron Sorkin is going to win this one.  His witty, fast-paced, hip screenplay for The Social Network was one of the most important factors in making that film so great, so he has to take home the award.  Beaufoy and Doyle have street cred because of Slumdog Millionaire, so they’re likely to get a nod, and the Coen brothers are continuously beloved by the academy for their dark scripts.  Toy Story 3 was just brilliant storytelling, so that’s likely to get a nod, and I chose Winter’s Bone as the final nominee mostly as wishful thinking, because I always want to see more female writers on the list.]

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Christopher Nolan, Inception
2. David Seidler, The King’s Speech
3. Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right
4. Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz and John McLaughlin, Black Swan
5. Mike Leigh, Another Year

[I love this category.  For starters, I always appreciate an original idea.  So many films now are either remakes, adaptations, or sequels.  We really need more original scripts.  Plus, my favorite screenplays have won this category (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Juno).  The ultimate original idea this year, Inception, should definitely earn a nod, as will popular films Black Swan and The King’s Speech.  And as always, there’ll be a couple of quirky, character-driven scripts thrown in.  This year, I predict those will be The Kids Are All Right and Another Year.  As far as the winner goes, it’ll probably go to the juggernaut Inception, but The Kids Are All Right could sneak up and win as the year’s indie darling.]

Best Animated Feature:

1. Toy Story 3
2. The Illusionist
3. How to Train Your Dragon

[This year the animated category will only feature three nominations, because the number of available nominees fell just short of the amount needed for a five-nominee ballot.  How to Train Your  Dragon was a favorite of both critics and moviegoers, so it’ll be recognized, and The Illusionist is the foreign favorite that often gets nominated.  But let’s face it.  Nobody’s beating the brilliant Toy Story 3.]

Check back soon for my predictions for the technical awards.